A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."